Bittersweet, but victory nonetheless for the SNP

Paul-Matthieu Faure, Client Executive
11/06/2026

Set against the backdrop of a chaotic situation in Downing Street following last month’s elections, the result of the Scottish Parliamentary election largely flew under the radar. On the surface, the result seemed to be fairly “business-as-usual”, as the SNP won their fifth successive election. Indeed, many will be impressed that the SNP managed to emerge as such clear winners given the scandal over former CEO Peter Murrell’s embezzlement of party funds, and questions about what Nicola Sturgeon knew about it.

However, the result will no doubt feel bittersweet for the SNP, with their 58 seats falling well short of the 65 required for a majority, and representing the party’s worst performance since 2007. Facing significant advances from both Reform UK and the Scottish Greens, and with the SNP’s vote share declining significantly, the result highlights that the nationalists’ dominance can no longer be taken for granted.

This leaves First Minister John Swinney facing a difficult strategic choice. While the Scottish Greens may appear the most natural governing partner due to their shared commitment to Scottish independence, lingering tensions following the collapse of their cooperation agreement in 2024 coupled with disagreements over economic policy, complicate the prospect of a formal arrangement. For this reason, the First Minister held meetings with all major parties across Scotland’s political spectrum, except for Reform UK, who the First Minister pledged to “lock out” of power. It is looking likely that the SNP will choose to lead a minority government, relying on Green and Liberal Democrat voices on an ad hoc basis.

The SNP’s challenge now shifts from winning power to exercising it. The party has outlined an ambitious programme for its first 100 days, including a price cap on food and bus fares, the introduction of phone-free classrooms, and a reduction in the number of state bodies. Collectively, these policies are intended to demonstrate that the SNP still has, despite nearly two decades in government, to ideas to deliver tangible improvements to Scots’ everyday lives, while responding to growing concerns around the cost of living and the effectiveness of public services.

However, this may prove easier said than done, and not just due to the lack of a parliamentary majority. For example, the proposed food price cap has drawn criticism for its impracticality and potential economic consequences, with critics questioning how it could be implemented without creating distortions in supply chains.

The question of Scottish independence also continues to loom large, albeit without a clear route for the SNP to force a re-run of the 2014 vote. Nonetheless, the party has once again committed itself to securing a referendum before the next UK general election and has already begun pressuring Westminster. During the first sitting of the new Parliament, MSPs approved a motion calling on the UK Government to grant a Section 30 order under the Scotland Act 1998, which would provide Holyrood with the legal authority to hold an independence referendum.

Yet the political realities facing the SNP are largely unchanged. Westminster remains firmly opposed to granting a Section 30 order, and the uncertainty around the future of this Labour government will make constitutional questions a lower priority for ministers.

Overall, the election represents both an opportunity and a warning for the SNP. The party remains Scotland’s dominant political force, but the SNP’s vote share declined significantly (including by a third in the regional list) and its ability to win a clear plurality of seats owed much to the fragmentation of opposition support across Reform UK, the Greens, Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. The party’s position thus resembles that of the current Westminster Labour government: numerical strength in parliament that arguably overstates the depth of public enthusiasm behind the government, and could limit subsequent freedom of manoeuvre on policy.

This is the dynamic the SNP will have to grapple with as they seek to support deliver progress in domestic policy areas whilst showing pro-independence activists that they are making progress towards IndyRef2 – an unenviable challenge even for a politician of John Swinney’s experience.