Do the recent local elections point towards a Reform government?

Michael Dowsett, Director
19/05/2026
 
Reform’s stunning gains at the local and devolved elections are – once again – prompting the question of whether the party is the strong front-runner to win the next general election.

With Labour now seemingly about to embark on a leadership election and a shift leftwards, the Conservatives’ recovery (insofar as it exists at all) uneven and highly-localised, and the public crying out for change, who would bet against a Prime Minister Farage taking office in 2029?

Whilst Reform are undoubtedly the big winners of the elections, the results also provide a steer on where the party needs to focus going forward if they are to be confident of entering government after the next general election.

First though, it’s right to acknowledge the overriding point that Reform is now the dominant force across swathes of provincial England which provided the backbone of Conservative victories in the 2010s, and also in parts of the urban North even Boris Johnson didn’t flip in 2019 (e.g. Sunderland, Barnsley).

They have also – unlikely Farage’s previous parties – achieved a significant breakthrough in Scotland. Getting into this position in such a short period of time is a historic achievement, and further cements Nigel Farage’s position as one of the most influential politicians of recent decades.

Yet, it’s undeniable that some areas which on the face of it seemed likely to fall to the Reform insurgency stubbornly refused to topple – note Conservative success in Bexley, Broxbourne and Harlow, and the Conservative estimated national vote share settled in the high-teens. Just a handful of places, yes, but in a general election likely to be decided by fine margins, ones that could make the difference between a Reform majority and the uncertainty of a hung parliament.

Reform will therefore need to find a pitch to voters who are still, despite the failings of the last government and the argument that backing Reform is a wasted vote now discredited, choosing to stick with the Tories. This is by far their most viable path to breaking decisively into the mid-30s and creating a vital buffer against tactical voting by left-of-centre parties in marginal seats at the next general election.

Recent announcements committing to keeping the pensions triple lock, restoring the two-child benefits cap and retaining the OBR are a clear attempt to close down avenues of attack from the Conservatives. Yet, whether it’s the threat of a Labour minority government propped up by the Greens, or something else, the route to a Reform government lies in developing a pitch to millions of centre-right voters who have hitherto been resistant to Nigel Farage’s overtures.

Before we get to the next election though, there is the challenge of governing. 14 more local authorities elected majority Reform administrations on 7 May. Though Reform has a rebuttal ready for those who criticise their governing record in the county councils they seized last May – citing cuts to wasteful spending and lower than average council tax increases – other parties will see Reform-run councils as a target, with any slip up being heralded as a lesson in trusting populist parties with responsibility for running things.

The important work of Danny Kruger on preparations for government, of the Reform policy team in preparing a comprehensive programme to put before the electorate, and the calibre of the frontbench and Parliamentary candidates Reform will put forward in 2029 will, taken together, have to pass the ‘smell test’ if underlying voter anger is to result in an end to the Labour-Conservative duopoly which has governed the country for the past century. Updates on the results of Kruger’s work are expected in the coming weeks and months.

In the meantime, there’s no opportunity to take a victory lap, with a pivotal by-election due in Makerfield next month. Despite the entry of Andy Burnham into the race making this no ordinary contest, the extent to which Reform can squeeze the Conservative vote in the seat (which stood at 11% in 2024), along with the degree of tactical voting on the left, will provide another trailer for the dynamics which could play out during the next general election campaign.

Whether Makerfield is a repeat of Caerphilly, where left tactical voting pushed Reform into second, or Runcorn and Helsby, where the Conservative vote more than halved and Sarah Pochin narrowly won, remains to be seen.