Entente Cordiale?: What the French Parliamentary election results mean for the UK

15/07/2024
Amélie Bamford, Junior Consultant


France's parliamentary elections have once again captured global attention, reflecting the dynamic and often unpredictable nature of its political landscape. In recent elections, the balance of power has frequently polarised, showcasing both the vulnerability of established parties and the rise of new populist movements. Last week’s results revealed a fragmented Parliament, with no single party achieving an outright majority, setting the stage for complex coalition negotiations and potential legislative gridlock that won't allow for much room for Paris to come up with novel, widely accepted policy proposals.

The incumbent party, Renaissance (RE), originally founded by President Emmanuel Macron as En Marche!, experienced significant losses. While they remain the second largest party bloc in the National Assembly, their reduced number of seats indicates waning support and increasing public dissatisfaction with Macron's centrist policies.  Voters are seeking alternatives to the centrist approach that has dominated French politics for the past several years.

The substantial gains made by the left-wing coalition known as the New Popular Front (NFP) highlight its ability to successfully galvanise the significant portion of the electorate, particularly younger voters, disillusioned with Macron's administration. Its success underscores a growing appetite for progressive policies and a shift towards more radical solutions to address economic inequality, climate change, and social justice.

Whilst Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) was on course for its best ever election result and majority in Parliament following the first round of voting, frantic political manoeuvring in the days after saw Renaissance and the New Popular Front mobilise their forces in a national effort to thwart the far right. The result - hundreds of centre and left-wing French politicians withdrawing from the race to prevent the anti-Le Pen support from becoming divided. The strategy worked.

In response to the tactical voting, members of the National Rally have slammed the ‘unnatural alliance’. Despite suffering at the hands of the left-leaning union, Le Pen remains hopeful for the RN’s success in the 2027 Presidential election – in which she will run as their candidate. Particularly after her success in re-engineering the NR’s once xenophobic and antisemitic former image and tapping into grievances of voters angry over living costs, strained public services, and immigration.

Overall, the election results highlight the growing polarisation within French society. This is likely to result in a more contentious and less predictable legislative process, as parties with divergent agendas attempt to find common ground, particularly when electing a Prime Minister.

To form a new Government, Macron needs to split the left and cede some control, positioning his to party to minor but key role in a new coalition. This stark new reality will be hard to swallow for a leader that sought to reshape French politics, but has since experienced two severe electoral blows in one month.

So what does this mean for French relations with those across the Channel?

The election results could have significant implications for France's future relationship with the UK, especially when relating to cooperative policies. The fragmentation and shift in political power within France suggests a more complex and potentially volatile political landscape. President Macron's weakened position and the rise of both the far-right NR and the left-wing NFP coalition could lead to shifts in France's foreign policy stance.

This is of particularly note for the contentious policy areas such as immigration, trade, and security cooperation. The need for coalition-building and compromise in France may result in a more cautious and fluctuating approach to its dealings with the UK, contrasting with the more stable, albeit still challenging, environment following the UK's election. Consequently, both nations will likely experience periods of diplomatic adjustment as they navigate their post-election political realities – one likely to remain more afloat than the other.

With a weakened Macron still expecting to remain in office until 2027, he will be sure to utilise the remaining portion of his presidency power to re-build a base of domestic support for his successor while maintain France’s own standing on the international scene.