In search of a new “North Star”: Reflections from Conservative Party Conference 2024

Alex Tiley, Senior Consultant 
3/10/2024

Within a few hours of CPC24 opening, the grey clouds rolled in, bringing with them a constant rain that continued for the duration of the conference and bestowed all delegates with an air of rising damp. Outside, professional heckler Steve Bray, blasts a funeral dirge from his loudspeakers. The heavens weep down upon the Conservative Party Conference in Birmingham but inside the tent, the autopsy-conference for the party has a distinctly more up-beat mood. 

For a party that has been unceremoniously booted from Government after 14 years, and seen their number of MPs in the House of Commons more than halved, this may seem like a surprise. For many on the ground however, opposition, at least at the beginning, seems to come as a relief. The party feels like it has an energy to review where it has gone wrong and remains optimistic for its prospects of returning to power.

Some of this buoyancy may be due to the sense that the Labour Party had enjoyed a less than pleasant conference and transition into power; mired in donation scandals and burning through its political capital at a rate of knots. Unsurprisingly, the Tory conference was quieter than previous years, with less events in the fringe and often noted fewer events that were catered. For the first time in a long while, this writer was forced to buy dinner, rather than survive on the usual conference diet of small canapes and suspect beige food. Similarly, the shadow cabinet (who are clearly aware that following the leadership election, they are unlikely to remain the shadow cabinet) feel like trustees as the party moves forward rather than the drivers of any transformation. For the people who at the last conference, stood on the stage and sat on panels as Ministers of the Crown, this shuddering demotion must bring with it a strong sense of ennui. 

But it is in the fringe that the energy existed; there is a strong intellectual drive in the party to understand its failures, learn from them, and return with a clear, popular vision for the country, something that many in the party feel has been lacking for many of the last years as it has allowed itself to be puppeted along by the decaying corpse of populism in the driving seat.  

Predominantly, the conference was a beauty pageant for the leadership hopefuls, each looking to win over the membership and the remaining undecided MPs before the final whittling down to the two that will go to the members. Each campaign has its own distinct flavour and idea for how they will achieve this: 

Tom Tugenhadt inundated the conference with merchandise: a Tugen-hat, a Tugen-Tan, a Tugen-foam finger: the magnitude of “tugen-tat” present is impressive. Not quite getting the play on words, his stall features a merch crate labelled a “Tugen-box”.  Arriving at his reception, the pavilion is filled with bright-eyed and bushy-tailed activists cheering, yammering, and drawing the ire of the other fringes happening at that time. It recalls the same people who clamoured so fervently for Sunak, for him to then lose to Liz Truss. 

James Cleverly gave some strong speeches and underpins his campaign with a somewhat authentic brand of “hey guys this is me” while thumbing his nose at those in the party that are concerned he is not right wing enough. His speech to the Popular Conservative Reception leaves feathers ruffled from in hindsight was likely an over-repetition of how “in a very left wing way” he did something right wing.  Received wisdom is that Cleverley had the best showing at Conference, and the campaign continues to barrel along hoping to leapfrog Tugenhadt and win members hearts with its affable rugger-club charms. 

Robert Jenrick, who at the time of writing leads with MP endorsements, fringe hopped and distributed red meat policy pledges to the attendees with the frequency of a proud butcher who thanks to the miracles of Ozempic, finds himself with a food surplus. Prime cuts doled out to the ravenous pundits include the relocation of the UK Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, pulling out of the ECHR, and “A Great Reform Act”.  Many of the usual suspects of the party right have been won over, and there is talk that Robert has had a “Damascene Conversion” in his politics. Convincing members that he has indeed had this will be vital for the campaign to maintain its positive trajectory.  

Kemi Badenoch, continuing to lead with the rank and file, toured the conference, often arriving late, and is smiling, youthful, full of energy, but failed to give any indication of a policy platform. Her team, it is muttered by many Association chairs, seems to be acting like she is already the leader. Her conference updates group, which initially does not have a restriction on who can post updates, verges on fanaticism and seems obsessed with buying things with her face on. Kemi sprinkles her media engagements with picking fights with journalists on subjects like maternity pay and the minimum wage, causing even the stalwarts of the party right to exchange glances and wonder out loud why she does not pick her battles better.

For the most part, the leadership election is collegiate. The party is clearly aware of the challenges that it will face as it seeks to rebuild over the following years: a huge majority in the commons to overturn, and pressure from both the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK that unless addressed, will lock the party from power for a long time. 

What starts to become clear, however, is that the party is looking desperately for its “North Star”, a guiding set of values, principles, and objectives that can be the future of Conservatism in the UK and give the party a common purpose once again. If opposition can teach the Tory Party anything, it will be that the policymaking that dominated “Sunak-ism” and started to flourish with Johnson, namely that any idea that seems to poll well with the public should be run up the flag pole in a desperate scrabble for votes, should be abandoned. If the party can move past this and find its North Star, it may not have to stay out in the wilderness for as long as some think it will, for if recent elections have taught us anything, it is that the electorate is volatile, and trust in our institutions is at an all time low.