Makerfield: Insights into a by-election of unique consequence 

Oscar Harman, Associate Director, and Mike Buckley, Senior Counsel
16/06/2026
The team at Stubshaw Cross Community and Sports Club probably didn’t celebrate their 2025 New Year’s Eve party expecting to be working in the centre of the British political universe at the mid-point of the year.

Yet driving into the Club just off the M6 roughly halfway between Manchester and Liverpool, you instantly know this is not a usual by-election. The voters of Makerfield know that they are deciding not just their local MP, but altering the future direction of our country.

Atticus Partners’ Oscar Harman, and Mike Buckley have been up in Makerfield and here share insights from the campaign.

Insights from the Burnham Camp (Mike)

What strikes you on the ground in Makerfield is the depth of the divide. Whole streets are a sea of blue - Reform and Restore stakes - while others are solid Labour and "Vote Andy for Us". Few areas carry both.

Andy Burnham is favourite to win, which, if confirmed on Friday morning, will be a major boost to a Labour Party that was afraid it had run out of ideas of ways to beat Reform. Labour lost every council ward in Makerfield just over a month ago – a win this week will be a remarkable turnaround. The polls all point to a convincing Labour win, with many voters backing Burnham explicitly to force a change of government. Some voters admit to switching from Reform to Labour to get change now, rather than three years from now at the general election.

Should he win, Burnham will nonetheless face huge challenges. Assuming he does take over, he will not only need to do better on growth, public services and both having and selling a compelling vision. The split communities of Makerfield are proof that significant numbers of people have given up on mainstream politics and its ability to change their lives for the better. The harder task for Burnham and his team will be reaching the communities that won’t vote Labour this week, and have long fled to the extremes.

Feeling on the Ground (Oscar)

Pulling up at the campaign centre immersed with ‘Vote Andy Vote Hope’ correx boards, and a massive photo of Bobby Moore lifting the world cup, (pictured), what stood out most was the sheer breadth of the coalition of those campaigning. Over pints with Labour MPs, staffers and later debating the merits of public ownership of water with Steve Coogan over a Boddingtons at the campaign centre, it was clear this contest has become far bigger than a typical parliamentary race. On the doorstep, conversations repeatedly returned to the cost of living and immigration, while Restore Britain appeared far more visible than Reform in many parts of the constituency.

Voters know the by-election is one of immense consequence. What goes unspoken among most Labour activists and MPs is certainly not unspoken by those on the doorstep and among Reform activists, critiquing the Manchester Mayor for using Makerfield as a stepping stone to Number 10. Yet among conversations with voters, most shrugged off the criticism, asking why they would not want their local MP to be the Prime Minister. The prevailing mood in the Labour camp is one of cautious optimism, but nobody I met is treating the result as a foregone conclusion.

One of our key questions to voters was, “Is there a party you definitely wouldn’t vote for?”. I was surprised at the number that answered, “Nigel Farage’s Reform Party”. It’s always difficult to get a flavour for a by-election with an electorate of 70,000 or so when you knock on a handful of doors, but the perks of running the board for a whole team is you can get a sense of where those previously identified as Labour were heading, and how the “Don’t Knows” where falling.

The lasting impression from the conversations I had and the (admittedly narrow) data I received was that Andy Burnham was retaining the Labour vote in 2024 – which shouldn’t be understated as an achievement – and while Nigel Farage’s Reform Party was making minor improvements on their 2024 result (with several previous ‘Don’t Knows’ breaking for Reform this time), it did seem that was outweighed by the “Burnham boost” as a popular local politician. Whatever happens next, it is clear that any other Labour candidate would lose this by-election – the question remains whether the only candidate who could win it, can get it over the line on Thursday.