Reform’s Revolution
Ellie Anderson, Junior Consultant02/05/2025
Across England last night, both the Conservative and Labour Parties were shaken by a wave not even Nigel Farage could have predicted. With counting still ongoing in large parts of the country, it’s clear Reform will win vast swathes of council seats, alongside the Lincolnshire mayor, with Dame Andrea Jenkyns – a former Conservative MP – at the helm. Crucially, the Party takes the Parliamentary seat of Runcorn and Helsby.
In the closest ever by-election – with just six votes in it – the long-held Labour stronghold of Runcorn, previously with a majority of 14,696, will instead send the fifth Reform MP to Westminster next week.
The decision not to send Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to the by-election has raised several eyebrows across the political divide. With The Telegraph claiming this will shake even moderate confidence in No.10, it’s clear Reform spells trouble for Labour.
There are just 12 months until the Welsh and Scottish Parliamentary elections, and further local elections, No.10 will now need to look for answers, and quickly. Facing issues across the UK marred by tough economic decisions, the next few weeks will likely see a shift across the Labour Party. A cabinet reshuffle is all but imminent.
The threat of Reform doesn’t just stop with Labour. The Conservatives, also taking a significant blow, will need to respond. Robert Jenrick, looking to entrench his position as the threat to Kemi Badenoch’s leadership, has already suggested going into a sort-of coalition with Farage’s Party. Others have resisted so much as uttering the Party’s name within Conservative Party HQ.
Kemi Badenoch’s Party is defending 960 council seats and, unfortunately for her, the polls point to the Conservatives losing all 16 Conservative-controlled councils in play. The Leader of the Opposition, under pressure from a growing number of her MPs, will now need to defend her leadership, while continuing to mourn the devastating loss of the 2024 election.
All eyes are now on how Farage’s Party capitalise from these local elections. Seeing a large amount of support locally could well be key for Reform in building their base across the country, and threatening Labour safe seats in areas like Doncaster and North Tyneside will only strengthen Reform’s resolve in achieving this.
Crucially, it must be remembered that Reform won over 4 million votes in the 2024 general election, a mere 10 months ago, but only five seats in Parliament. Conversely, the Lib Dems, having received 3.5 million votes, were able to convert that figure into 72 Parliamentary seats. At the time, they largely credited the victory to the strength of their local party machinery.
Should Reform look to do the same, the future could well be limitless.
Image Source: Reform UK Twitter @reformparty_uk
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