Resource producing countries wrestling for greater control: The case of Botswana 
07/08/2025

In May 2024, Anglo American announced plans to offload its stake in diamond giant De Beers, part of an effort to block a hostile takeover by Australian rival BHP. But beyond corporate strategy, it signalled a rare chance for producer nations to reclaim control over global resource flows, an opportunity rich in symbolism for leaders eager to assert independence from Western influence.

Since then, the Financial Times recently reported the Botswanan government is eyeing a controlling stake in De Beers, an audacious move which would mark a historic shift in post-colonial resource politics. This ambitious proposal mirrors the resource nationalism long championed by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which first set the precedent of shifting power away from former colonial powers and multinationals back to producer nations.

While the political symbolism of the potential sale is powerful, the economic and strategic realities are far more challenging. President Duma Boko, elected in late 2024, has made economic nationalism a key pillar of his agenda. Yet despite his assertive rhetoric, analysts familiar with the De Beers deal remain sceptical that Botswana could mount a successful takeover. With De Beers valued at around $4 billion, equivalent to roughly 20% of Botswana’s 2024 GDP, the financial burden would be immense.

Even with the country’s substantial foreign currency reserves from diamond revenues, such a fiscal commitment would undoubtedly place significant strain on the country’s economy in the immediate term.

Compounding this is the rise of lab-grown diamonds. Already 5% of the global market and projected to hit 15% by 2030, these diamonds are eroding demand for natural stones, especially among younger, ethically minded consumers in the US and Europe. This trend casts serious doubt on the long-term value of Botswana pouring billions into a volatile market.

On the global stage, a move to nationalise a multinational organisation such as De Beers could set a precedent likely to deter future investment. Botswana has long stood out among resource-rich nations by maintaining relatively strong governance and a stable investment climate. However, foreign investors would likely be spooked by such a politically motivated acquisition, potentially harming the country’s international reputation, and sparking concern among other producers eyeing similar paths to full resource control.

Focussing on the practicalities, taking control of De Beers would present major operational challenges. Beyond mining, De Beers is also involved in all other aspects of the diamond supply chain which includes beneficiation, trading, marketing and retailing. Managing such a vast and complex global enterprise would put Botswana’s institutional capacity under intense scrutiny, potentially raising concerns about the government’s ability to maintain both De Beers' reputation and operational efficiency.

Ultimately, Botswana’s signalling that it intends to secure a controlling stake in DeBeers reflects both a symbolic and strategic effort to reclaim greater ownership over its valuable natural resources.

Even if the economic and geopolitical realities make a full takeover unlikely, the message is clear that producer nations such as Botswana are increasingly unwilling to remain on the margins of the global value chain.