Romania at a Crossroads: What the First Round of the Presidential Election Reveals  

Amelie Bamford 
15/05/2025

Romania's presidential election has entered a decisive phase following a dramatic first-round result that saw far-right nationalist George Simion stunned observers by securing 41% of the vote, with centrist and pro-European Union advocate Nicușor Dan trailing at 21%. The scale of Simion’s performance has already had significant political consequences: with Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu resigning, resulting in the collapse of the ruling coalition, underscoring the disruptive potential of this election.

Simion, leader of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), has built his campaign around a nationalist and Eurosceptic agenda. He has voiced opposition to European Union leadership, criticised military assistance to Ukraine, and proposed the nationalisation of oil companies. His rhetoric and political style align closely with those of US President Donald Trump and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, raising concerns among Romania’s Western allies.

In contrast, Nicușor Dan, currently serving as Mayor of Bucharest, represents a pro-European, reformist agenda. Known for his technocratic and anti-corruption credentials, Dan argues for deeper EU integration, continued support for Ukraine, and economic reform to attract investment and unlock EU development funds. He has warned that Simion’s approach risks isolating Romania internationally and undermining both its economic stability and democratic norms.

The implications of this election are not merely domestic. Romania plays a strategic role within NATO and the European Union, particularly in light of Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. A shift away from pro-Western policies could destabilise regional cooperation and security. Financial markets have already responded nervously; the Romanian leu fell nearly 3% following the first round, and bond yields have spiked amid investor uncertainty.

Polls ahead of Sunday’s final round suggest an exceptionally tight contest, with both candidates currently polling around 47% according to POLITICO. This margin highlights the importance of voter mobilisation, particularly among younger voters and Romania’s sizable diaspora, which proved decisive in past elections. Historically, the diaspora has leaned towards pro-European and reformist candidates, and their turnout could significantly tilt the balance in Dan’s favour. However, Simion has made notable inroads among younger and disaffected voters, particularly through his populist messaging on social media and direct challenges to political elites. 

A significant moment came with the large-scale pro-European Union rally held in Bucharest on Europe Day, attended by thousands. Organised in coordination with centrist and progressive groups, the event not only marked Romania’s 17th year as an EU member but also served as a visible rebuke of Simion’s Eurosceptic stance. Similar rallies were held in other major cities, including Cluj-Napoca and Timișoara, pointing to a broader national effort to energise the electorate and push back against nationalist rhetoric.

Ultimately, Romania now faces a stark choice between two fundamentally different visions for its future. The runoff will not only decide the next Head of State but also signal the direction the country is prepared to take—whether toward a more insular, nationalist path or a continued alignment with the European Union and democratic values. 

The outcome of Sunday’s vote will resonate far beyond Romania’s borders. It will define the country’s international posture, shape its economic prospects, and determine the nature of its democratic institutions for years to come. A pivotal decision for a fairly new democracy.