Romania’s Presidential Election Crisis: A test for Democracy and European Stability 

Amelie Bamford, Junior Consultant 
07/04/2025

The Romanian presidential election has captivated political observers with its intense competition and deep implications for the country’s future direction. At a crossroads between East and West, Romania has long struggled with balancing its ties to the European Union, whilst navigating competing neighbouring powers such as Russia.

Romania is at a pivotal moment in its political history, as the country grapples with the fallout from a controversial presidential election and prepares for a re-run in May 2025. With the upcoming election set to shape not only the country’s leadership but also its geopolitical direction, the implications extend far beyond Romania’s borders, potentially influencing European security and the broader stability of the region.

The political turmoil began with the surprising performance of nationalist candidate Călin Georgescu in the November 2024 election. Nationalist candidate Călin Georgescu’s unexpected success (23% of the vote) defied polling predictions, largely fuelled by social media support. However, in December, authorities uncovered a sophisticated Russian influence operation – primarily on TikTok – designed to boost his campaign.

However, in early December, Romania’s Constitutional Court ruled to annul the results, citing credible evidence of Russian interference designed to boost Georgescu’s campaign. The ruling ignited protests led by the populist and nationalist AUR party across the capital, as his supporters, alongside other far-right factions, denounced what they saw as an attack on their democratic rights.

In response to these developments, authorities scheduled a new election for May 2025, but tensions escalated when the Central Election Bureau (BEC) barred Georgescu from running again. This decision, based on alleged ties to Russian interests and an ongoing criminal investigation, has only fuelled further unrest.

The instability surrounding Romania’s election has broader implications for European security. As one of NATO’s easternmost members and a crucial player in the Black Sea region, Romania plays a key role in countering Russian influence. The growing support for nationalist and Eurosceptic candidates has raised concerns in Brussels and among Romania’s Western allies, who fear that a shift in political leadership could weaken the country’s commitment to NATO and the European Union.

The political unrest has also mobilised pro-European Union supporters. Thousands rallied in Bucharest most recently to express their commitment to the EU amid the election tensions, highlighting the polarised views within the country regarding its geopolitical orientation.

Should a far-right victory emerge, especially one driven by anti-EU sentiment, this would undermine regional cooperation, weaken Romania’s military commitments, and challenge the unity of NATO’s eastern flank. Additionally, the rise of nationalist movements in Romania mirrors a broader trend across Europe, where populist and right-wing parties are gaining traction, often with narratives that challenge traditional alliances and security frameworks.

European Commission officials have emphasised the need for Romania to maintain its pro-European trajectory, warning that any shift towards nationalism or Euroscepticism could risk funding cuts, diminished influence in Brussels, and strained diplomatic ties with key European partners. France and Germany, as central pillars of the EU, have signalled their intention to engage more actively with Romanian political leaders to ensure the country remains committed to European values and obligations. Meanwhile, leaders in Eastern Europe, particularly in Poland and the Baltics, are keenly watching Romania’s political climate, recognising that a stable and pro-Western Romania is essential for countering Russian influence in the region.