Scotland rising up Starmer’s list of problems
Craig Davidson, Associate Director25/02/2025
The Prime Minister Keir Starmer doesn’t have his troubles to seek.
The economy is flat and growth is hard to come by. Public services are struggling and nothing seems to work. And an international crisis is brewing with Russian aggression and US unpredictability shaking old geopolitical uncertainties.
So when he headed north at the weekend to give his keynote speech to the Scottish Labour Conference in Glasgow, the PM may have expected some light relief. After all, he had returned 37 seats in Scotland at last summer’s election, sparking a revival of his party’s fortunes after two decades of barely-interrupted SNP dominance. A victory party perhaps?
Yet the latest polls present a different picture for Starmer. In fact, it’s a situation which could soon become the government’s biggest crisis.
Imagine the following events fall into place over the coming years:
- Next year’s Holyrood elections produce a pro-independence majority of SNP, Green and Alba with Labour a distant second
- Starmer’s falls short of a majority when he seeks re-election in 2029 and has to rely on a revived SNP to pass budgets and legislation to remain in office
In these circumstances, it’s hard to see how the United Kingdom avoids a second referendum on Scottish independence and the potential break up of the country. It could be the price of staying in power.
This isn’t just doom-mongering. The polls point to this possibility.
Starmer is certainly taking it seriously. He sent some of his top lieutenants – Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds, Minister for Government Relations Pat McFadden and Chief Secretary Darren Jones – to Glasgow to charm Scottish businesses put out by the recent Budget.
And Starmer himself was armed with £200 million to announce as investment to revive Grangemouth, the oil refinery set to close at a cost of 400 jobs.
Of course, nothing is set in stone. The political fortunes of all parties have waxed and waned over recent years and no could predict with any certainty what will happen in future elections.
And Scottish Labour Leader Anas Sarwar gave a spirited conference speech, announced his candidacy as First Minister.
But Scotland continues to be on this government’s problem list. Right now, it is far down the list, behind Russia, Trump, the NHS and the economy. Yet it could be top within a few years. He could barely afford the distraction of a full-blow constitutional crisis and the thought of being the Prime Minister who lost Scotland must fill him with horror.
If your business has interests in Scotland, it might have to start moving up your list of considerations too.
Atticus Partners has a team of specialists in Scottish political analysis, engagement and communications – if you are interested in hearing more about Scotland, please get in touch.
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