Should those looking to influence policy start engaging with Reform?  

Michael Dowsett, Associate Director
23/04/2025

The big polling story since the general election has been the rise of Reform UK. From recording a 14.3% vote share on 4 July to averaging in the mid-twenties in polling over recent months, speculation is rife that Reform could hold the balance of power next time around, and even that Nigel Farage could be the next PM.

If current trends are sustained, many of those looking to influence policy will start to consider whether engaging with Reform should be part of designing impactful public affairs campaigns.

Is this well-founded? After all, the next general election may not be until 2029, the party currently only has 4 MPs, and like Farage’s other political vehicles (namely UKIP and the Brexit Party), the possibility can’t be discounted that Reform’s rapid rise could be followed by disappearance into political obscurity.

Nonetheless, with Labour already very unpopular, a Conservative opposition still smarting from a historic rejection by the electorate, and with Reform set for significant gains (including possibly a by-election win in Runcorn) at next Thursday’s elections, many will be weighing up whether to take the plunge and engage with the party more intently. Here are three reasons why they should:

1.     Though Reform has focused to date on building up its campaigning clout, hiring a slew of regional organisers and developing a branch network, if it remains a contender for power into the second half of this parliament then expectation will grow that the party will offer a comprehensive, credible, and costed policy platform.

Keen politics watchers already know where the party stands on key areas such as immigration, Net Zero and ‘woke’ issues, but this leaves a broad swathe of areas, from public sector reform to tax and the economy, where they still need to set out their thinking in detail (though note how Farage recently sought to lead on the issue of nationalising British Steel for signs of how this is now changing). With Reform still only possessing a limited number of staff, the party may well be looking for ideas and contributions from external organisations who can contribute expertise, research, and policy suggestions in key areas. As with Labour in the last Parliament, getting in early with key movers and shakers is likely to pay dividends if the political winds keep blowing Reform’s way.

2.     Though any Reform government in Westminster will have to wait until the end of the decade (if it happens at all), Reform politicians could be wielding power in local and devolved government much sooner than that. Some are tipping Reform to claim former Labour council strongholds such as Doncaster on 1 May, and the party stands a good chance in some of the new Combined Authority Mayoral elections such as in Greater Lincolnshire, where former Tory Minister Andrea Jenkyns is their candidate.

With powers over key areas such as skills, transport and housing being passed down from Whitehall to local representatives, influencing local Reformers responsible for taking decisions and managing budgets in Mayoral offices and town halls up and down England – and potentially in Wales after next year’s Senedd elections – will be increasingly important for those looking to shape local politics.

3.     Building cross-party coalitions has long been a prerequisite for successful public affairs engagement. In a more fragmented political landscape, this means looking afresh at who should be in your campaign’s ‘Big Tent’. Though Reform’s limited Commons presence means they don’t have Select Committee memberships and only get a limited amount of time at Ministerial oral questions, it’s worth campaigners considering the other ways in which MPs from smaller parties – whether that’s Reform, the Greens or others – can use their strength in other areas, such as their social media following, to demonstrate how a cause draws support from across the political spectrum.

Even in a congested news environment, the rise of Reform has been one of the key political stories of 2025 so far. If it continues, it will have significant implications for how those looking to drive key policy debates – whether locally or nationally – go about getting what they want. In short, expect successful campaigns to have an increasingly turquoise hue in the next few years.