The Conservative Party has its new leader but the path back to power is long and steep

06/11/2024

With a supermajority to confront, the challenge for the next Conservative Party leader may initially seem insurmountable. The last time the party was in this position, it took 13 years and four leaders to convince the electorate to back them again. Facing a Labour Party dominant in Parliament, but with a shallow majority of only 33.7 percent of the national vote share, new leader Kemi Badenoch will be hoping history doesn’t repeat itself.

The final showdown for the Conservative leadership saw a battle of the right-wing element of the Tory party. After the shock exit of centrist and former Home Secretary James Cleverly in the final three, Badenoch took the contest against Robert Jenrick, winning by 12,418 votes.

Commentators have been quick to point out that this leadership contest saw the lowest turnout ever, with only 72.8 percent of members voting. Badenoch herself also received the lowest vote share for a winner with 56.6 percent, falling below Liz Truss who achieved 57.4 percent.

So where does this leave the new leader? With both Labour and Reform taking key votes from the Conservatives at the last election, Badenoch has some key strategic decisions to make. Questions remain whether she will be able to combat the rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform party while clawing seats back from Labour and Liberal Democrat parties, who both drove deep into Tory heartlands in July’s General Election.

Her initial challenge must be the uniting of the party and the reclaiming of the centre right ground that others have made successful headway into, and she has built a Shadow Cabinet she believes has the teeth to take the fight to other parties. Former leadership candidate Mel Stride now sits as Shadow Chancellor and Dame Priti Patel moves to Shadow Foreign Secretary. There are some stark omissions though with other leadership candidates Cleverly and Tugenhadt returning to the backbenches, perhaps to wait to see if the new house of cards comes tumbling down?

Badenoch will also be eager to demonstrate her capabilities as a Prime Minister in waiting by scrutinising the increasingly glaring pitfalls of Labour’s recent budget. Badenoch refused to outline a detailed policy platform during the leadership content, instead building her campaign around a set of core values and suggesting the policies could be fleshed out once in position. Now at the helm, her first Prime Minister’s Questions took a strong approach to Starmer, bringing a welcome rejuvenation of energy to the Conservative benches.

Kemi’s challenges will not just be in the House of Commons though as internally the Conservative Party has entered a period of sharp decline in membership. The era of traditional political involvement seems to be over as the party has suffered a reduction of its eligible electors by 23.6% since the last leadership contest in 2022.

To compound this, the usually effective Conservative Campaign Headquarters is due an overhaul. Party members were outraged during the election as some last minute Conservative MP candidates were placed in safe seats with little decision given to the local party members. This, combined with an ageing membership, brings stark challenges to Badenoch who must reshape and reform her party to continue its record as the oldest and most successful political party in the world.

As the first black female leader of a British political party, Badenoch is well placed to build this new Conservative party, diversify its membership, and continue the ‘broad church’ mentality the party prides itself on. To reinforce her position, the Chairman of the Conservative backbench ‘1922 Committee’ Bob Blackman has raised the requirement for a ‘no-confidence vote’ to be triggered from 15% to 33% of Conservative MPs. Whilst this only shifts the number of MPs required from 19 to 41, it does give Badenoch a buffer zone, and increases the likelihood that she will be in position for the next general election, currently set for 2029.

The challenges are stark and the momentum within the grassroots of the Conservative party is lacking. If Kemi can simultaneously take the fight to Labour, hold off Reform, and rebuild the party from the base up, then she may well be the Thatcher so many in the party are looking for.