The Irish electorate want change, but status quo remains for now

02/12/2024

Ireland bucked the trend of anti-incumbency results in its election this weekend, with the two major governing centrist parties of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael likely to be returned to Government, with the former being expected to be the largest party in the Dáil. Yet, despite these results appearing to show that the Irish public is content with current political apparatus, a desire for change has clearly shone through.

Despite exit polls showing that Sinn Féin would finish in first, with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in second and third respectively, the opposite has occurred with Fianna Fáil most likely to be the largest party, with Sinn Féin and Fine Gael currently fighting it out for second place. This largely leaves Ireland in the same situation it found itself in four years ago, with the three parties finishing in similar positions.

Fine Gael’s performance represents a poor return for their Taoiseach Simon Harris, who lavishly gave away treats to the Irish public pre-election including €10.5 billion in tax cuts and spending increases in a pre-election budget. Despite this giveaway, voters clearly did not buy into the generous budget, or the commitment from the party’s manifesto that they would cut taxes by €7 billion. Harris may also have played a part in this result, with his performance on the campaign trail coming in for criticism, specifically his encounter with a disability care worker in which he appeared to flagrantly dismiss her concerns about the issues facing the sector.

While two of the main governing parties have escaped the worldwide anti-incumbency trend, the desire for change is clear, with 60% of the votes going for opposition parties. The Greens did not have the same fortune as their former coalition partners. Previously finishing with twelve seats in the last general election, the party has been virtually wiped out, losing all but one of their seats, with their leader, Roderic O’Gorman, hanging on by a thread. O’Gorman said his party would focus on “rebuild mode” but did add he was “very nervous” on the future of green policies and worried that the next Government may try to “roll back from some of those key Green Party policies.”

Though the Greens took the brunt of the punishment at the poll, discontent with the entire coalition and wider political system is evidently rife among the Irish public. Housing remains a major issue, with 61% of people ranking the housing shortage as one of the country's top two problems. Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael acknowledged the potency of this issue in their manifestos, with the former pledging to build 10,000 affordable homes a year, and the latter promising €40 billion for the housing budget for the next five years. Meeting these commitments may be crucial for both parties to win the public’s long-term trust.

Looking forward, the main question on the Irish public’s minds is what form of new government they will be left with. Despite Mary Lou McDonald, the leader of Sinn Féin, insisting that her party could form a left-wing coalition government, the disparate and fractured nature of the other parties makes this a remote possibility. Far more likely is continuity, with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael likely working together in a coalition government, with a third party such as the Social Democrats or Labour. Cian O’Callaghan, Deputy Leader of the Social Democrats, appeared open to the possibility of entering Government, saying that “we will talk to all parties. We talked to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael last time, and we will again this time round.” O’Gorman also pushed these two parties to enter into a coalition as a junior partner, urging them to use their mandates to “push progressive politics.”

In summary, while this election may mean business as usual for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, with both likely returning to government, warning signs have been shown to both that the Irish public is ready for change and that they are not content with the current situation. If issues such as housing and the cost-of-living crisis remain unabated, a Greens-style wipeout may not be out of the question for either party, with the worldwide anti-incumbency trend threatening to eventually catch up to Ireland.