The Labour Choice?

Oscar Harman, Associate Director
11/05/2026

The Labour Party’s bruising performance in last week’s local elections has transformed what should have been a routine mid-term setback into a defining political moment for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. Heavy council losses across England, combined with disappointing results in Scotland and Wales, exposed growing frustration among voters who feel Labour has yet to deliver the change promised at the last general election. Reform UK emerged as one of the biggest winners, capitalising on concerns over immigration, the economy, and trust in Westminster politics, with the Green Party making major inroads into Labour’s heartlands across London.

In his speech this morning, Starmer attempted to regain control of the political narrative. Speaking directly to critics inside and outside his party, he insisted he and Labour would “prove the doubters wrong” and warned that Britain risked heading “down a very dark path” if mainstream politics failed to respond to public anger. The Prime Minister announced plans to bring forward legislation to nationalise British Steel and pledged a renewed focus on working people, apprenticeships, and rebuilding economic confidence. He also hinted at closer cooperation with the European Union, signalling a softer post-Brexit tone without reopening the debate on rejoining the bloc.

Yet the pressure on the leadership remains intense. Some Labour MPs now openly question whether he can lead the party into the next election, with over 50 at the time of writing calling for new leadership. Yet the Prime Minister’s message was clear: the country won’t forgive the Labour Party for putting the country through that, but must instead convince voters that it can still offer stability, competence, and hope in an increasingly volatile political climate. In today’s speech the PM spoke of the ‘Labour Choice’ with action on industry, Europe, and young people. The question is the hours and days to follow will be - is the Prime Minister still Labour’s choice?

The MPs who have called for a change of leadership are not drawn from one particular tradition, or part of the country. While MPs on the left of the party such as Bell Ribeiro-Addy and John McDonnell calling for a change of leadership is not surprising, the inclusion of moderate MPs in the 2024 intake such as Chris Curtis, Chair of 100-strong Labour Growth Group, and former Minister Josh Simons in the call for leadership change shows this is not a solely policy disagreement among left-wing MPs. Northumberland MP David Smith, most commonly associated with the Blue Labour tradition in the PLP, has also joined in calls for the Prime Minister to set out a timeline for his departure.

While seemingly splitting hairs, the distinction between those calling for a leadership change at the earliest possible opportunity, and those calling for a timeline for departure is an important one. The left-wing Labour MP Clive Lewis would perhaps ordinarily call for his resignation - but the absence of Andy Burnham in Parliament means several MPs on the soft left, Mainstream and/or Tribune Group are reluctant to be involved in triggering a leadership contest this week. That reluctance would of course not be shared by MPs such as Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner, the Health Secretary and former Deputy PM and Housing Secretary respectively. If Wes Streeting decides now is his moment with the soft left weakened by the absence of Burnham in Parliament, he may choose to pull the trigger.

But the Labour Party’s rules are not the same as the Conservatives. MPs don’t choose a contest, they endorse a candidate. Even if a Labour MP was to reach the magic 81 MPs and trigger a contest, they’d be facing an uphill battle. The Prime Minister would automatically be on the ballot as the incumbent, and it’d be unlikely the left of the PLP would allow the contest to be solely Starmer vs Streeting, given the absence of a clear standard bearer for the soft left in that hypothetical. And it is virtually impossible for the hard left to be able to muster the numbers for their own candidate.

In this context, the most likely course of events is the Prime Minister remains as leader for the time being, hopes that the King’s Speech this Wednesday is sufficient enough to seize the agenda back from leadership speculation, and then to get through to summer recess in July as Labour’s leader. But expect relentless calls for an Andy Burnham return to Parliament, an increasingly unstable and frustrated PLP, and a rocky ride in the run up to Labour Party Annual Conference in September, where he will hope he remains the Labour Choice.