Trump’s political comeback is a win for the history books. Will his second term be one too?

Alex Rogers, Consultant
6/11/2024
Many across the United Kingdom expected to wake up this morning to see the U.S. election in a state of deadlock, with the Presidential candidates vying for every last vote across ultra marginal districts. The process looked set to last for days or even weeks with pollsters predicting wafer thin margins.

Instead, as alarm clocks went off, many were instead witnessing a surge of support for Donald Trump with news that he had secured the key swing states of Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania and was on course to win the popular vote too, a feat he failed to achieve in both his elections previously.

Before Trump had secured the 270 electoral college votes required, and prior to any recognition of defeat from Harris, world leaders had already begun to congratulate the 47th President Elect. Secretary General of NATO Mark Rutte, France’s President Emmanuel Macron and the UK’s Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer were all quick to offer their own public congratulations with a hope they may be in line for a telephone call later in the day. For many leaders, these initial hours are a critical time to set the tone for relation building in the months to come.

For Starmer, his past with Trump has been rocky. Several of his key Cabinet Ministers, including the Foreign Secretary, were less than kind to Trump during his first term, when they themselves were in opposition and far from direct contact from Trumps administration. The political tide turning in the UK now sees many of these Ministers on the front line of UK-US diplomatic relations, faced with the prospect of having to navigate a way around their previous comments.

More recently, Trump’s critique of Labour’s “interference” in the US election, through volunteers travelling to key swing states, and instances of Elon Musk, a key Trump ally, enthusiastically directly public criticism towards Starmer will hamper the Prime Minister’s effort to smooth relationships.

Starmer’s compulsory atonement had already begun prior to the election, with officials on both side of the Atlantic reporting a positive first meeting between Starmer, Lammy and Donald Trump as the Republican candidate. Fortunately for Starmer, Trump’s nature as a transactional leader means that there are always opportunities to reconcile, for the right price.

With Trump’s re-election now confirmed, Keir Starmer has a decision to make regarding his continued approach to wooing the returning President. Will he try to match Trump’s ‘strongman’ persona like Macron? Or take the more subdued approach Theresa May tried and failed to adopt?

Given Starmer’s more pragmatic approach it is likely he will follow the more subdued approach, using the UK’s idea of the ‘special relationship’ to bridge the growing political and economic divide that will open up between the US and the EU. in the face of lingering domestic reluctance.

This notion of trade wars, and the subsequent economic slowdown and rise in inflation that invariably follows, will now place many nation states on edge. Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds has said the UK is “extremely well prepared” for Trump’s expected flat tariff of up to 20 percent on all imports to the US, as well as the increased trade war with China. However with Rachel Reeve’s high taxing budget still on the floor of the Commons, many within Labour will not be seeing Trump’s election, and new economic challenges associated with it, as welcome news.

Labour will be hoping the UK-US free trade deal that eluded the UK under the Biden administration could become a realty under Trump. Despite his eagerness for its materialisation, should negotiations open, old sticking points on food regulation and US corporate access to the NHS will resurface. However, with trade wars and tariff increases likely, this could be an option for Labour to limit some of the economic effects and build rapport with the new administration.

Despite economic threats, the UK Government has an opportunity to use the divergences with Trump’s foreign policy to reassert its position on the world stage. With Trump hawkish on China and holding an ambivalent stance towards Ukraine, the UK can remain a practical and rational leader on these issues. It is now up to Starmer to decide how he wants to approach the new President elect and begin to navigate the choppy relationship across the Atlantic.